Charleston Currents #13.03 | Nov. 16, 2020
DAPPLED. Sweetgrass blooming in the autumn is one of our favorite natural pleasures. Sunlight at just the right angle makes the pink fronds of glow in front of Stono Park Elementary School in West Ashley. Photo by Andy Brack.
TODAY’S FOCUS: Divided federal government may help economy
COMMENTARY, Brack: S.C., Democrats have keys, but need to turn on engine
IN THE SPOTLIGHT: Charleston Gaillard Center
NEWS BRIEFS: City Paper to offer $10 virtual concert 8 p.m. Tuesday with McCain, Hall
FEEDBACK: Harp was key for this reader
MYSTERY PHOTO: Interesting place for a mural
CALENDAR: Animal Society’s virtual chili cook-off to be Nov. 21
MORRIS: Divided federal government may help economy
By Kyra Morris, contributing editor | History shows the American economy prefers checks and balances. Since 1945, the S&P 500 stock index under a divided federal government has had a 14 percent return whereas under a unified government the experience was 12 percent.
Morris
The 2020 elections are not completely over, yet the probability is for a Joe Biden presidency, a tight GOP majority in the U.S. Senate and a tighter Democratic majority in the U.S. House than before the election as more seats were taken by the GOP. We will have a divided Congress at least for the next two years. Assuming the eventual transition, how will history be written under this administration?
First, political appointments will be meaningful and more competitive, particularly at independent commissions, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, where personnel is policy.
Next, implementation of Democratic priorities will be limited with no new large appropriations. At the IRS, there will be limited changes with some gridlock and a not-yet-recovered economy. Two predictions: No capital gains hike; and no increase in the corporate tax rate. Overall, here will be no major paradigm shifts, including:
- No new stimulus program;
- Infrastructure programs will be constrained;
- Federal rule-making on the Affordable Care Act will take time;
- Clean energy policies may face uphill battles, but appointments are key here;
- There may be decriminalization of cannabis at the federal level;
- International relations will return to traditional, diplomatic public stance, with little or no additional trade war threats; and
- The COVID-19 vaccine will take center stage for overall recovery.
Finally, the direct correlation between the Biden administration and the economic recovery is not high. Policy changes take time to show differences, and current policies already have momentum. The U.S. GDP by 2024 could easily be within 1 percent of what it was going into 2020. Different sectors may emerge and other sectors may see strong shifts. Total economic recovery depends more on the efficacy of a COVID vaccine than it does on the government administration.
Other trends ahead
There is hope for broad vaccination in 2021. The restaurant, hospitality and air travel industries have been deeply hit. While they only make up 6 percent of GDP, they make up 15 percent of US employment. Vaccines will be helpful and needed for the recovery of these sectors.
Consumer goods spending is leading the way so far with the recovery, whereas consumer service spending has been depressed. A consumer-promoting and friendly online presence that supports the ability to keep spending while not leaving your home is crucial. Grocery stores did not skip a beat with groceries purchased online and either delivered to your car or directly to your home. The 2020 stimulus was the largest stimulus since World War II. It created personal income wealth and for many people, this was disposable income that could be spent.
The elections will have a small impact on total market valuations. The broad markets are currently slightly overvalued as a whole, though there are significant variations across individual stock values. Mega-cap and large tech stocks are overvalued, while one-third of the North American stocks are undervalued and many of these make up 75 percent of the Morningstar 4- to 5-star rated securities. Small cap cyclicals may benefit from the pent-up demand created in 2020.
Here are some other sectors to watch:
- Restaurants – near term closures with recovery in 2021. Those that shifted to online and delivery are stronger;
- Travel – recovery by 2023 with cruise ships taking longer;
- Consumer cyclicals – coming off lows;
- Energy – perhaps most opportunity as this is the worst hit. The perception of oil will make a difference on demand;
- Health care – no real change; and
- Technology – robust fundamentals though headwinds are strong and the sector is mostly overvalued,
Uncertainty and change will continue to be key words for the economy. COVID and its vaccine are charged with these. A divided government may also denote uncertainty and change though it is not one of the areas to attach a lot of your concerns for the economy. A study done by LPL Financial saw the S&P 500 return of 17.2 percent under a Democratic president with a split Congress, 13.4 percent under a Republican Congress, and 10.7 percent under a Democratic Congress. There is a strong probability that we will have a Democratic president and a split Congress. The checks and balances provided hinder drastic changes that alter behavioral demand, shifts in industry sentiment and general business operations.
The future is full of cobblestones that need to be maneuvered. Although it is tricky and we need to be aware of falling, it also contains beauty. The divided Congress amply reflects our country. The divided Congress historically does not mean disaster for our economy.
We need to learn how to hear, listen to and record all of our voices. We are teaching that diversity makes us stronger. Inclusion is when all voices are embraced, and our equity comes from both diversity and inclusion. May an outcome from this election be the evolution of our diverse voices all being heard. If diversity and divided mean something similar, then divided we stand.
Kyra H. Morris, a Certified Financial Planner, is CEO of Morris Financial Concepts, Inc., in Mount Pleasant. A national leader in the financial planning profession, she has been named several times by leading magazines as one of the country’s top financial planners.
S.C., Democrats have keys, but need to turn on engine
By Andy Brack, editor and publisher | Just look at what happened in neighboring Georgia and you can see that Democrats have the keys to win big elections. But in South Carolina, they haven’t turned on the engine.
Instead, they lost a U.S. Senate race as well as down-ballot contests for Statehouse and municipal positions in what was supposed to be the year of the blue wave. It was, at best, a ripple as state and local elections were nationalized so much that you’d think House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate leader Chuck Schumer lived in the Palmetto State.
Look at what happened across the nation: Voters were highly engaged with 83 percent saying the winner of the presidential election really mattered to them, according to Pew Research Center. That’s 20 points higher than 12 years ago. Voters also went to the polls. Some 66.4 percent of registered voters cast ballots, the highest percentage since 1900. And they cast the most ballots ever — more than 150 million votes.
In South Carolina, 2.5 million voters cast ballots, a record turnout of 72.1 percent. Four years ago, 400,000 fewer voters went to the polls, a turnout of 67.9 percent.
But in Georgia, registration exploded since 2016 with 1.2 million more voters, according to ABC News. In the 2020 election, about 900,000 more voters cast ballots in Georgia than four years earlier, according to election results.
Abrams
Much credit for Georgia being competitive in 2020 — and potentially flipping to President-elect Joe Biden — is given to state Democratic leader Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost the 2018 gubernatorial election after registering hundreds of thousands of mostly black voters.
“Another big surprise, maybe to a lot of people, was the impact Stacey Abrams had on Georgia,” said longtime national Democratic consultant John Podesta in an exclusive interview with sister publication Statehouse Report. He is a former chief of staff for President Bill Clinton and counselor to President Barack Obama.
“Registering 800,000 voters in the midterm 2018 election had a really substantial effect that is likely to give Biden the win in Georgia,” Podesta said this week as vote-counting slogged on in Georgia. “If she had not run the race in Georgia that she ran in 2018, there’s no way Biden would have been able to prevail in Georgia as I think he will.”
What’s interesting about what Abrams did in Georgia is that it may be a key for milquetoast state Democratic parties in Southern states that haven’t been able to take back control of legislatures. In 2020 despite voters wanting change in the White House, there were fewer legislative chamber switches — than in any presidential year since 1944, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Podesta
Registering more voters in Southern states like Mississippi and South Carolina — and then getting them to the polls — is a “base focus strategy” that is a starting point, said Podesta, founder and current chair of the Center for American Progress.
But on top of that, Southern Democrats must have messages of value that resonate and show how they can “compete on the economy and education and other issues besides race and immigration.”
Southern Democrats also have to communicate their values better in rural Southern communities, he added. “We’ve got to have a story to tell about how we’re going to improve the economic well-being, the educational well-being of those voters. We’ve got to deliver now that we’ve promised to attack structural racism and the things that have held African Americans back for so long. We’ve got to deliver on that. But I think the future could be a lot brighter across a number of those states in the South.”
For Democrats to be successful in the South, they’ll have to deal with the nationalization of elections that seem to make local races about national figures like Pelosi and Schumer.
“Once, you could have a completely different identity [as a Southern candidate] than what the national structure looked like,” Podesta said. “I think those days are gone, which means you need a national appeal that is broad and has the capacity to pick up the middle. You can do that, but you’ve got to be ultra-careful about it so that you can win it in states like Georgia and South Carolina.”
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Charleston Currents, and publisher of the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: editor@charlestoncurrents.com.
Charleston Gaillard Center
Charleston Gaillard Center provides the Lowcountry with a world-class performance hall, elegant venue space and vibrant educational opportunities that inspire dynamic communities throughout the area through the power of the performing arts. The Center’s vision is to enrich the diverse community of Charleston with artistic and cultural experiences that are accessible and unique, and to serve as an educational resource for generations to come.
Did you know that the Charleston Gaillard Center is a 501c3 non-profit that works with over 25,000 students each year from the tri-county area? Promoting education is one of the core values of the Charleston Gaillard Center and an integral part of our mission. By broadening the reach of arts-education in the Lowcountry the Gaillard Center encourages learning through the arts and serves as a powerful tool for student achievement and personal development while providing people of all ages with the opportunity to cultivate and grow their talents and appreciation for the arts. To learn more about our education initiative, click here: www.gaillardcenter.org/outreach.
For more information, click the links below:
- Buy tickets and see our great events
- Become a member today
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McCain, Hall perform 8 p.m. Tuesday in $10 virtual concert
Staff reports | Is there anyone who doesn’t think 2020 has just sucked?
At 8 p.m. Nov. 17, the Charleston City Paper will offer a virtual mini-concert called 2020 SUCKS, a City Paper Concert for Charleston with Charleston favorite Edwin McCain as well as Country artist, Lauren Hall.
At the end of the concert, the City Paper will announce the winners of the 2020 City Paper Music Awards. The weekly newspaper also will share some funny short videos and messages recognizing its 2020 Best Of Charleston sponsors and winners. The Nov. 18 print issue of the newspaper will showcase winners, too.
- Buy your tickets for just $10 through CityPaperTickets.com. A portion of ticket proceeds will benefit the Charleston Animal Society
In other recent news:
State has big pot of money for 2021-22 budget. The state of South Carolina has $775 million in reserves to spend thanks to COVID-19. The pot would have been even bigger, but revenue collections dropped millions because of the pandemic.
Without an approved 2020-21 budget, state spending remained at 2019 levels. With no new budget, there were no approvals for new one-time spending projects. Recurring expenses approved last year continued to be funded, but proposed recurring increases, such as a boost to per student educational costs or use of new “non-recurring” dollars for things like $100 million in security improvements for the state Department of Corrections, were put on hold. So that inaction also meant contingency reserves from two previous budget years — monies generally spent in new budgets — were parked in state accounts.
The pot is now worth $775 million, an amount that can buy a whole lot of widgets for state government. And it’s part of an even bigger pot that lawmakers will have to spend starting in July. According to a Nov. 10 preliminary forecast for the state’s 2021-22 fiscal year, lawmakers should have about $1.2 billion in new revenue to spend over and above what regularly comes in. Read more in Statehouse Report.
More virus is on the way. By Thanksgiving, South Carolina should top 200,000 total cases of COVID-19, based on projections. As of this week, almost 190,000 people have been diagnosed with the disease — and about 1,000 new residents are getting it daily. The percent of people who test positive with the disease remains in the double digits. So far, the state has experienced more than 4,000 deaths, according to state health officials. As a new surge in infections is expected to drop south from midwestern and northern states, more South Carolinians are expected to get the disease and die from it.
McClellanville acreage preserved. About 22 acres in McClellanville will be permanently protected after the owners opted to grant a conservation easement to the Lowcountry Land Trust. Known as Taylor’s Farm, the Pinckney Street property is in the Santee River Focus Area, one of 12 focus areas in the state identified for wildlife protection and land conservation. “We are happy to have put our property in McClellanville into a conservation easement,” said property owners Charles and Frances Geer in a statement. “We are grateful to the Lowcountry Land Trust for enabling us to protect this natural area for the benefit of future generations.”
Smith honored with big award. Big claps to Palmetto Goodwill President and CEO Robert Smith, who was honored Nov. 11 with the 2020 Kenneth K. King Outstanding Management Award for Executive Excellence, the most prestigious leadership award presented by Goodwill Industries International. Smith has worked at Goodwill for the past 38 years. He started his career as a truck driver picking up donations. He has since worked in numerous positions within Goodwill, gaining a holistic perspective of operations, before becoming CEO in 1998.
S.C. ballots tossed. State election officials said more than 3,000 of 4,000 ballots that were not counted were invalidated because of the lack of a witness signature. State lawmakers changed voting rules this year to allow everyone to vote by mail, but a witness signature requirement initially was not required. Court battles led the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate the requirement.
Golf club renovated. The Golf Club at Briar’s Creek recently completed a two-year, $6.5 million renovation to the club’s golf course and facilities including a complete course transformation, the opening of the Robert C. McNair Golf Performance Center and the addition of three on-site cottages, according to a press release. Additions and renovations to the private club, which is majority owned by McNair Interests, a private investment and management company, were announced in 2019. McNair Interests was founded by the late entrepreneur and philanthropist Robert C. “Bob” McNair.
- Have a comment? Send to: editor@charlestoncurrents.com
Harp was key for this reader
To the editor:
Well it was the Irish harp on the iron gate [of a past Mystery Photo] that cinched it for me. This is the door to the beautiful Hibernian Hall on Meeting Street, downtown Charleston of course! The annual St. Paddy’s parade ends here with Irish songs and green beer and a lot of good camaraderie!
As a former downtown resident of Charleston I love to follow your stories in Charleston Currents. Keep up the very good work and the good news.
— Patricia C. Deussing, Apex, N.C.
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Interesting place for a mural
This photo might be difficult for out-of-towners to locate because it’s in an interesting place. The “who” shouldn’t be tough, but where is it? Send to editor@charlestoncurrents.com. And don’t forget to include your name and the town in which you live.
Our previous Mystery Photo
Our Nov. 9 photo, “Orange archway?” should have been easy-peasy to anyone who has driven past South of the Border on Interstate 95 in Dillon County. It was a close-up of a Pedro sign.
Hat tip from Pedro to several clever sleuths: Jim McMahan, Susan Highfield, Delia A. Smith and Mia Maness from Charleston; George Graf of Palmyra, Va.; Jay Altman of Columbia; Chris Brooks of Mount Pleasant; Bill Segars of Hartsville; and Allan Peel of San Antonio, Texas.
Peel shared some info about South of the Border: “Today’s mystery photo is part of the 104-foot tall roadside sign and attraction that features South of the Border’s famous Mexican mascot ‘Pedro,’ a caricature of a Mexican bandito with a rather large sombrero.
“South of the Border is a tourist attraction located just off the U.S. Highway 301 and I-95 interchange, about seven miles northeast of Dillon, S.C. It is so named because it is just south of the border between North Carolina and South Carolina.
South of the Border was started more than 70-years ago by Alan Schafer with the introduction in 1949 of a simple 18 x 36 foot beer stand known as ‘South of the Border Beer Depot.’ The site was located just two miles from the border with Robeson County in North Carolina, which was at the time, one of many dry North Carolina counties that prohibited the sale of alcohol. This allowed Schafer’s business to boom and enabled him to expand his business with the addition of other enterprises, including a 10-seat restaurant and grill and a 20-room motel. In 1962, he opened a cocktail lounge and souvenir shop to sell trinkets that he imported from Mexico. By the mid-1960s, he added a gas station to serve the many tourists and travelers dropping in on their way south to Florida, and he included a fireworks stand to capitalize on the fact that it was also illegal to sell fireworks ‘across the border’ in North Carolina. By the mid-1960s, South of the Border had expanded to include a barber shop, drug store, a variety store, a post office, an outdoor go-kart track (complete with other outdoor recreational facilities). It was around this time that the 104-feet tall sign of Pedro was added to the properties.”
- Send us a mystery: If you have a photo that you believe will stump readers, send it along (but make sure to tell us what it is because it may stump us too!) Send it along to editor@charlestoncurrents.com.
Animal Society’s virtual chili cook-off to be Nov. 21
Staff reports | Emmy Award-winning celebrity dog trainer Brandon McMillan will roll up his sleeves Nov. 21 to help shelter animals in the 20th anniversary presentation of the Charleston Animal Society’s annual Chili Cook-off.
“Charleston Animal Society’s biggest fundraiser of the year, their annual chili cook-off, would normally involve upwards of 10,000 people,”McMillan said in a press release. “I helped them re-imagine their event by working with dogs in their shelter to create interesting content and moving the program to a Facebook Live stream which has created opportunities for anyone anywhere in the United States to get involved and help.
“Like most guys, I have no idea how to make chili. I reached out to my friends at Home & Family [on the Hallmark Channel] to create a recipe and show everyone how easy making chili can be. I could not lead the pack for the chili cook-off and not know how to make chili!”
This year, the event has been reimagined as an online experience to allow anyone to participate. The two-hour event will be streamed on Facebook Live on Nov. 21. Learn more and register a team.
Also on the calendar:
Bourbon talk: 6 p.m., Nov. 17. The Charleston Library Society will host a discussion certain to enthrall bourbon drinkers. Julian Van Winkle and Wright Thompson will meet via Zoom to discuss Thompson’s book, Pappyland: A Story of Family, Fine Bourbon, and the Things That Last. Free, but RSVP required to receive the Zoom invitation.
Virtual book launch. 5 p.m. Nov. 19, Buxton Books, Charleston. Poet Eugene Platt will do a virtual reading from his new book of poems, “Nudas Veritas,” from the bookshop, hosted by owner Polly Buxton. To RSVP, please email Monica at Monica@buxtonbooks.com. More info.
Antigone at CofC: Livestream performances at 7:30 p.m., Nov. 19 and Nov. 20. The College of Charleston’s Department of Theatre and Dance will present Sophocle’s classic Greek tragedy, “Antigone,” with a modern twist in an adaptation by Peabody Award-winning playwright Emily Mann. Theatre students comprise the cast. Tickets are $15 for adults, $12 for seniors and the military and $8 for students. Show and ticket information is available at showtix4u.com/events/cofcstages.
New Safe Sounds show on Nov. 21: Doors open 6 p.m; Show begins 7 p.m. on Nov. 21, Firefly Distillery, North Charleston. The distillery’s socially-distanced concerts are back with its fall Safe Sounds series. The next show features Ben Bridwell of Band of Horses. Tickets are $175 for four and can be purchased in advance at citypapertickets.com.
Redux art auction: Through Nov. 21. Redux Contemporary Art Center’s 18th Annual Art Auction will be held in-person and virtually with more than 150 pieces are available for purchase. The auction is the organization’s primary fundraising method each year. Visitors can see the artwork in the Redux gallery art space at 1056 King Street and in these partnering businesses throughout Charleston: Haegur (1102 King Street); Harbinger Café (1107 King Street); Monarch Wine Merchants (1107 King Street, Suite B); J. Stark (498 King Street, Suite 100); Ted’s Butcher Block (334 E Bay St); and Haven’s Fine Framing (1070 Johnnie Dodds Blvd, Mount Pleasant). All of the auction artwork will be up for bid online via Bidr. The virtual auction will go live on the Redux website on Nov. 9 and remain open through Nov. 21. During the auction, Redux will be open 11 a.m. to 4 p.m., Monday through Saturday.
Freedom Ship of Robert Smalls exhibition. Through Nov. 22, City Gallery, Prioleau Street, Charleston. The gallery will offer free viewing of The Freedom Ship of Robert Small, an exhibition of large format reproductions of artist Jonathan Green’s illustrations for Louise Meriweather’s children’s book of the same name. A new edition of the 1971 was published in 2018 with Lowcountry artist Greens pictures. Gallery hours are limited due to coronavirus. Tickets are free, but must be reserved online. More info.
From Etchings to Pastels: Through Nov. 29, Lowcountry Image Gallery, The Charleston Museum. The museum has partnered with the Pastel Society of South Carolina to present new interpretations of etchings stemming from the Charleston Renaissance Movement about 100 years ago. Learn more.
Holiday Festival of Lights: Through Dec. 31, 2020. The annual event, now in its 31st year, opens Nov. 13 and will offer a dazzling array of displays and about 2 million lights at James Island County Park. The festival will be open every evening nightly from 5:30 p.m. to 10 p.m. You can take a heartwarming cruise along the three-mile display of glimmering lights with your closest companions. The driving tour features over 700 light displays, most of which were created in-house by park staff. For details, visit HolidayFestivalofLights.com.
- If you have any online events, drop us a line (editor@charlestoncurrents.com) and make sure to put “Online event” in the subject line. Similarly, if you’ve got cool ideas for stuff to do while in isolation at home, send them our way.
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As more people stay home to deal with the coronavirus crisis, people are looking for things to do. You can find some fun things to do online in our calendar section below, but let us also encourage you to FORWARD your issue of Charleston Currents to your friends and encourage them to subscribe. It’s got a great price, as you know: Free! We hope they’ll enjoy our coverage.
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