BRACK: Incumbents have big advantages in June primary races

By Andy Brack, editor and publisher  |  After a fantastic couple of months away from yard signs and blaring television advertising, campaigning is upon us again.  Just look out your car windows as you are driving on any major thoroughfare.

Two months from now, voters — mostly those who vote in Republican primaries — will head to the polls to pick candidates for state and federal offices.  In many cases, thanks to gerrymandering of political districts, the primary will be the real election as those who win will face little or token opposition in the fall.

Charleston-area candidates have just shy of $2 million on hand at this point to spend on the election.  Granted, half of that is held by U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford’s congressional campaign, that’s still a lot of money to purchase advertising, direct mail, billboards, yard signs and the like.  The chart below highlights the money race so far.  Here are some highlights:

U.S. House, district 1:  Sanford holds a huge advantage over S.C. Rep. Jenny Horne of Summerville in the GOP race.  He’s got more than $900,000 on hand after raising $122,382 482,511 in the last three months.  Horne, on the other hand, has just $15,536 left in the bank after raising a fifth of Sanford’s total.  Advantage:  Sanford.

S.C. Senate 34:  The GOP primary is the only race in this open seat that covers the northern part of Charleston County and much of Georgetown County.  State Rep. Stephen Goldfinch has raised almost $100,000 while two challengers appear to be little more than frosting on the race’s cake.  Advantage:  Goldfinch.

Senate 37, 38, 44:  GOP incumbents Larry Grooms of Daniel Island, Sean Bennett of Summerville and Paul Campbell of Goose Creek  have huge money advantages over their challengers, who seem to be more in the race as token candidates put up by dark money groups than anything else.  None of the challengers has more than $2,000 on hand.  The incumbents have five- or six-figure war chests.  Advantage in these races that have only small pieces of Charleston County:  Incumbents.

Senate 41:  Five GOP candidates are battling for the James Island-West Ashley focused seat of retiring GOP Sen. Paul Thurmond.  No Democrats filed.  Perhaps the best-known candidate, County Councilman Joe Qualey of James island, has raised the least amount of money — $16,275, according to April 10 campaign finance reports.  Newcomer Culver Kidd and Roy Maybank each have about $60,000 on hand while lawyer Sandy Senn has raised twice as much.  This will be a race to watch, but Senn has a distinct advantage.

Senate 42:  This Democratic race is a rematch between former state Sen. Robert Ford, who was disgraced in an ethics snarl, and incumbent and rising star Marlon Kimpson.  Ford, who still owes money to the state for ethics violations, managed an $18,000 loan to the campaign and has about $22,000 on hand.  Kimpson has raised a little more than $90,000 in his reelection effort and has about half on hand.  Advantage:  Kimpson.

House 94:  Two newcomers, Katie Arrington and Carol Duncan, are battling for Horne’s open seat, which includes a small slice of Charleston County.  They have about the same amount of money in the bank.

House 110:  Five Republicans are seeking the downtown Charleston seat held by retiring, long-time incumbent Chip Limehouse.  Trey Harrell, the son of former House Speaker Bobby Harrell, leads in the money hunt with just over $60,000 on hand in the April report.  Businessman William Cogswell, who now lives on Savage Street in the district lives on Wadmalaw Island outside of the district but lists a business address outside inside the district, raised slightly more — $45,375 — in the first quarter, but has about $41,000 on hand.  Mount Pleasant lawyer Eddie Phipps has $22,678 on hand, while past candidate Russell Guerard has about $16,000 on hand.  Advantage:  Harrell.

House 116:  Democratic incumbent Robert Brown of Hollywood is the only of four candidates — two from each party — that has filed the required state disclosures, meaning the other three may face fines.  Normally, that would give Brown a big advantage, but in an anti-incumbent year when Brown only has $6,416 on hand and raised nothing in the first quarter, he could face trouble.

House 15, 112:  Incumbents Samuel Rivers Jr. of Goose Creek and Mike Sottile of Isle of Palms have huge money advantages over GOP challengers.  Advantage:  Incumbents.