By Fred Palm, contributing editor  |  Our South Carolina emergency plan is an all-event skeleton.  Depending upon the particular threat, customization to the plan is made. Even in the overall skeleton plan, any epidemic event is a second thought found in an appendix (14-1) to the general model for action.  In these plans, there is no pandemic appendix, so with COVID-19, we presumptively start as if the virus is an infection.

An epidemic requires a swift model that leaps ahead of the presenting of requests for medical services. State-level authorizations and equipment requests passed up the line will not be delivered in time. In fact, little time exists if an infection doubles every five days.

Social science surveys estimate the size of something, the incidence in the population. In this election season, for example, we are bombarded with polling data about what percentage of voters, likely Republicans or Democrats, are expected to behave in a particular way.