#JohnNotLeon — a special election commentary

Updated 11.7.15  |  After all of Leon Stavrinakis’s whining about negative campaigning in the race to replace Charleston Mayor Joe Riley, you might have been surprised that the first thing out of his mouth after the polls closed was an attack.

Stavrinakis, who has been a frontrunner for so long that he was obviously stunned that he came in a close second to commercial real estate agent John Tecklenburg on November 3, criticized the lead vote-getter as a “developer” in comments to the press.

That’s kind of an amazing attempt at a spin, obviously inspired by stunned consultants for a campaign that is off track.  Remember it is Stavrinakis who one columnist dubbed as the “developer’s choice” for accepting legal campaign contributions worth tens of thousands of dollars from developers.  And now he’s propping up his second-place finish by trying to tar Tecklenburg, who has opposed efforts to get rid of the city’s Board of Architectural Review — not exactly a pro-developer position.

Yes, it’s true Tecklenburg once served as the city’s director of economic development during part of the Riley administration.  His success led to the revitalization of upper King Street.  But that doesn’t make him a developer in the classic sense.  He was on the city’s payroll, not his own.  And today, his occupation  is to find 21^st century uses for old buildings and to sell properties, not make a bunch of money by turning raw land into shiny, expensive homes or buildings.  He’s a real estate agent, not a developer.

Some observations based on the results and the chart below:

Precincts.  While Tecklenburg got 270 more overall votes out of 25,000 cast, Stavrinakis won the most votes in 43 precincts, compared to 42 by Tecklenburg.  They tied in one.  William Dudley Gregorie won two precincts; Ginny Deerin, who came in third overall with more than 4,300 votes,  captured most votes in one precinct.

Tecklenburg

Geography.  Tecklenburg, who now lives in West Ashley, won all six precincts on Daniel Island, where he once had a general store.  He nabbed 18 of 20 precincts in on the peninsula.  And he narrowly won James Island, carrying 12 of 21 precincts.  Stavrinakis, who also lives in West Ashley, dominated that area by garnering the most votes in 31 of its 36 precincts.

Impact of the House district.  Stavrinakis tended to win precincts in which he has run successfully in the past for state representative — in places where people are used to voting for him.   Meanwhile, Tecklenburg carried only three of the 12 West Ashley precincts that also are in Stavrinakis’s House district. Tecklenburg won four of the five James Island precincts represented in the House by Stavrinakis, although those generally had few votes.

Between now and the Nov. 17 runoff, look for the warring campaigns try to secure support from voters of the four candidates who lost, especially in the battlegrounds of the peninsula and West Ashley:

Endorsements.  Tecklenburg won the battle of the print endorsements, racking up support from The Post and Courier, Charleston Mercury and Charleston Currents.  Additionally, he picked up Deerin’s important endorsement, which should motivate her supporters to get to the polls, rather than be frustrated and stay home.  Both candidates will try to round up personal endorsements, particularly in areas where they’re comparatively weak — West Ashley for Tecklenburg and downtown for Stavrinakis.

Stavrinakis

Style.  Tecklenburg, known for a calm temperament, didn’t face the animosity that grew between the Stavrinakis and Deerin camps during the general campaign.  But now, Stavrinakis likely will turn his guns on Tecklenburg.  But that could backfire — especially since he complained so much about how a Deerin ad linked him to developers.  If Stavrinakis is only positive, he may not get the fuel he needs to attract new support.  If he goes more negative, he may be seen as a hypocrite.

Other runoffs.  Because Tecklenburg dominated the peninsula and Daniel Island, he should benefit from more turnout expected in precincts in those areas for city council candidates.

At this point with runoffs in Tecklenburg-friendly precincts and broad endorsements, Tecklenburg has the edge in the runoff.  We continue to believe John Tecklenburg is the right choice for Charleston.  To learn why, read our endorsement.

Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and Charleston Currents.  Send feedback to:  editor@charlestoncurrents.com.